A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
