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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd